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Gartman: “We Are A Bit Uneasy This Morning Being Short”

August 22, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Just two weeks after he staked his reputation that “The Bull Market Has Come To An End“, “world-renowned” commodity guru Dennis Gartman is getting nervous, and as he writes in his latest daily letter, “we
are a bit uneasy this morning being short.

Here is how Gartman is slowly but surely pivoting away from his “red-line” bearish call on stocks:

STOCKS HAVE RISEN A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY with our International Index having gained a marginal 19 points, with stocks in Asia moving sharply higher while stocks in Europe were weak. However, the markets in Asia are responding to what we perceive to be the best speech given yet by Mr. Trump last evening in which he made clear that the US will not stand down from its obligations abroad.

 

Heretofore, President Trump… influenced of course by the manifestly anti-globalist philosophies of Mr. Bannon… seemed intent upon reducing the US position of global authority, but last evening that philosophy was abandoned, and with that the Asia stock markets and the US stock index futures turned briskly higher.

 

Also, we note that the Fear & Greed Index here in the US made its way toward and below the all-important 20 level, having fallen to 15 as of the close yesterday and almost certainly to turn higher today given the strength in the stock index futures as we write. Previously, any time this index fell below 20 and turned higher, stocks which had been under pressure swiftly turned for the better and although the world’s stock market histories do not always follow the precise paths each time, they do have great and constant similarities.

And the resultant trade adjustment:

2. Short of Two Units of the NASDAQ 100; Long of Two Units of the S&P:

We began the trade Tuesday, August 1st with the ratio at 2.37:1 and we added to the position on Friday, August 11th with the ratio at precisely the same level. It closed last evening at 2.38:1.

 

We’ve reduced our “risk” point to 2.42:1 on a closing basis in New York and we’ll look for the ratio to make its way down to 2.15:1… noting that each 0.1% is a material shift in price, but we are a bit uneasy this morning being short.

It would appear that the bull market is back on again, as for Gartman’s stake reputation, well… he puts it best: 

We are out of the office today, on the road home from Cookeville, Tennessee where we witnessed the Eclipse yesterday… however, we were actually about 5 miles from the perfect dead center of the event, but what we saw was spectacular! We’ll be back in the office late this afternoon for we are driving back home rather than flying.

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Mexico’s shale-rich Burgos Basin opens to private investment for the first time

August 22, 2017 Today in Energy 0

In July 2017, Mexico’s national energy ministry (SENER) opened the onshore portion of the Burgos Basin, a shale-rich basin in northeastern Mexico, for natural gas exploration and development by private companies. This is the first time non-state entities were offered access to the Burgos Basin for development since the creation of the national oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) in 1938.

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Ron Paul Urges America “Oppose Fascism Of The Right & The Left”

August 22, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,
Following the recent clashes between the alt-right and the group antifa, some libertarians have debated which group they should support. The answer is simple: neither. The alt-…

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Kurdish referendum to go ahead in defiance of US

August 22, 2017 Middle East Monitor 0

Iraq’s Kurds have announced that the independence referendum will go ahead as planned on 25 September despite US demands to postpone the vote. Kurdish leaders reiterated their intention to hold the referendum on the independence of the Kurdish region from Iraq. Over the weekend, head of the autonomous Kurdish region, Masrour Barzani, denied that he told US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that he agreed to delay the referendum. Postponing the referendum is “absolutely impossible,” Barzani told the Saudi newspaper Okaz. US officials are opposed to the September referendum believing it to be a destabilising move at a time when the fight against Daesh is ongoing. The United States and other Western governments fear the referendum could ignite a new […]

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Egypt constitutional amendment to increase presidential term retracted

August 22, 2017 Middle East Monitor 0

An Egyptian lawmaker who called for the constitution to be amended to extend the president’s term by two more years has retracted his comments following growing opposition to the idea. Lawmaker Ismail Nasreddine’s comments were published in Egyptian daily Al-Shorouk and stated that the idea to amend the constitution would not apply to President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s current four-year term but to the next president. Once Al-Sisi completes his term in office in 10 months’ time he will be barred by the constitution to serve more than two four-year terms. Al-Sisi is expected to run in next year’s elections despite declining to state whether he would run for a second term and has urged Egyptians to vote next year. Read: […]

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Somali forces retake key town in Al-Shabaab stronghold

August 22, 2017 Middle East Monitor 0

African Union and Somali forces have captured a strategic town in Somalia, All Africa reported yesterday. The town of Bariire, 27 miles from Mogadishu, was retaken along with a strategic military base in the Al-Shabaab stronghold. A fierce gun-battle with Al-Shabaab forced the group to retreat after the African Union and Somali national army attacked from three different sides of the town. Seven civilians were killed and four injured in the operation to recapture the town of Bariire. There were no reports of involvement by the United States Special Forces. Read: Turkey to open largest military base in Somalia Baiire was a key town to retake for the African Union and Somali troops as Al-Shabaab was using the strategic military […]

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Are We Fiddling While Rome Burns?

August 22, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Solutions abound, but they require the retirement of obsolete systems that defend entrenched interests and soul-crushing inequalities.

It turns out Nero wasn’t fiddling as Rome burned–he was 60 km away at the time. Did Nero Really Fiddle While Rome Burned?

The story has become short-hand for making light of a catastrophe, either out of self-interest (one theory had Nero clearing a site he desired for a palace with the fire) or out of a mad detachment from reality.

Are we fiddling while Rome burns? I would say yes–because we’re not solving any of the structural problems that are dooming the status quo. Instead, we’re allowing a corrupt, corporate mainstream media to distract us with fake “Russians hacked our election” hysteria, false “cultural war” mania, and a laughably Orwellian frenzy over fake news which magically avoids mentioning the propaganda narratives pushed 24/7 by the mainstream media–narratives that are the acme of fake news.

The media is only half the problem, of course; the audience doesn’t want to hear about structural problems that can only be fixed by disrupting the status quo. If we don’t accept that the financial system we inhabit is imploding, maybe all the problems will go away.

The system is coughing up blood and we still want to believe it is “recovering” from a cold.

Here’s a short list of structural problems we should be tackling:

1. Soaring inequality and the institutionalization of economic privilege. Systemic economic privilege doesn’t exist in a vacuum–it’s enforced by a centralized hierarchy, a dynamic I describe in my book Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege. Systemic inequality doesn’t just undermine the economy–it also undermines the social and political orders.

2. The central state (government) has one default setting: endless expansion into every nook and cranny of daily life. There are no mechanisms for contraction and no institutional memory of government reducing its control of every aspect of life.

As I explain in my book Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change, this concentration of power attracts concentrations of wealth which then buy the machinery of governance: democracy is reduced to an auction that excludes the bottom 99.9%.

3. Finance has detached from the real-world economy, distorting every function via financialization, which concentrates income and wealth in the hands of the few. As I have often explained in the blog (and in my book Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform), if we don’t change the way we create and distribute credit-money, we change nothing.

4. Our educational system is obsolete but the the current system is incapable of transformation for structural reasons. These include high sunk costs, bureaucratic sclerosis, self-serving fiefdoms that fear disruption of their gravy trains, a lack of understanding of the emerging economy, a dysfunctional centralized hierarchy and the state-funded exploitive machinery of student-loan debt.

I explain all this and present a model that would cut costs by 90% in my book The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy.

5. The economy and thus our society (i.e. our mode of production) are changing beneath our feet in dramatic ways. Highly centralized hierarchies (government, corporations) are the wrong unit size and structure to manage this transformation to the benefit of all rather than to the benefit of the few.

I present a decentralized non-state, non-corporate, non-financialized model in my book A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology & Creating Jobs for All.

For individuals navigating these disruptive forces, I wrote an overview guide to the emerging economy, Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

Solutions abound, but they require the retirement of obsolete systems that defend entrenched interests and soul-crushing inequalities. The world is changing rapidly, and centralized systems that worked well in the past are failing because they are optimized for a world that no longer exists.

The status quo is coughing up blood, and the situation is dire. Denial won’t fix what’s broken, and neither will magical thinking (the economy is “recovering,” symbolic gestures and virtue-signaling will fix everything, etc.) Clinging to the absurd hope that the status quo just has a nagging cold will only increase the disorder when the system breaks down.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary: I Assume Fort Knox Gold Is Still There

August 22, 2017 GoldCore 0

U.S. Treasury Secretary: I Assume Fort Knox Gold Is Still There

  • US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin visits Fort Knox Gold
  • Later tweeted ‘Glad gold is safe!’
  • Only the third Treasury Secretary to visit the fortified vault, last visit was 1948
  • Last Congressional visit was 1974
  • Speculation over existence of gold in Fort Knox is rife
  • Concerns over Federal Reserves lack of interest in carrying to audit on gold
  • Gold was last counted in 1953, nine years before Mnuchin was born
  • Mnuchin may be looking to prevent countries and states from worrying about and repatriating their gold

US Treasury Secretary ‘assumes’ the gold is still in Fort Knox, 64 years after it was audited.

81 years after it was built Fort Knox received its third visit from a US Treasury Secretary yesterday, Steven Mnuchin.

The fortified facility is reportedly surrounded by 30,000 soldiers, tanks, armored personnel carriers, attack helicopters, and artillery. Despite this , there is still concern as to whether the gold is there.

As he headed in Mnuchin told an audience, “I assume the gold is still there…It would really be quite a movie if we walked in and there was no gold.”

With a background in Hollywood it was unsurprising that Mnuchin’s imagination appeared to be getting carried away with tales of finding the $200 billion of gold missing.

Missing gold: fact or fiction?

An empty Fort Knox is an issue far removed from the hills of Hollywood  and has far more basis in reality than many give it credit for.

For many decades campaigns have been led for the US Treasury and government to audit the gold and to testify to its existence.

The gold has not been ‘counted’ since 1953. This was less than 20 years after Fort Knox was built. Since then there has been no official count or audit.

The facility (purportedly) holds 147 million ounces of gold, worth around $186 billion. This is small compared to the amount purportedly held at the Liberty Street facility, in New York.

As with Fort Knox, the New York gold is yet to be audited.

At the moment a tweet from a US Treasury Secretary is all we have when it comes to assurance over the gold’s existence.

 

Thanks to @usmint staff for hosting at #FortKnox #USBD. First @USTreasury Secretary to visit since John Snyder in 1948. Glad gold is safe!

— Steven Mnuchin (@stevenmnuchin1) August 21, 2017

 

Lack of Fort Knox gold audit to prevent damage, will cause damage

Congressman Ron Paul has argued previously that the US government ask Americans to trust that the Fort Knox gold is there plus gold stored elsewhere. They refuse to allow any checks and audits (whether independent or carried out by the government).

Paul stated back in 2010, “if there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there.”

Mnuchin is no doubt aware of the damage that would be done to the US economy should it come to light that the gold is no longer where its supposed to be.

He has likely taken note of Goldfinger’s dastardly plan in the infamous Bond film. In Goldfinger the villain plans to contaminate the US gold holdings in order to boost the value of his and the Chinese’s own bullion.

Whilst the gold in Fort Knox is unlikely to have been contaminated there is a strong argument that it isn’t there at all. Instead, it has been leased out many times over.

Who has the gold?

As GATA found out between 2008 and 2009 the Fed keeps a secret of its gold-swap arrangements with foreign banks.

Unsurprisingly gold-swap arrangements potentially lead to the eventual problem that no-one’s sure whose gold is whose anymore. It’s can be a high-end, expensive game of pass-the-parcel.

It’s worth remembering that the gold held by the US Government is not just owned by America, they hold gold for many countries, including Germany.

There is an argument to be made over whether or not Germany, or anyone else storing gold in a central bank abroad, owns allocated gold or is merely a ‘creditor’ on a metal statement, given gold swap arrangements.

Concerns have been so great over the United State’s lack of interest in auditing the gold bullion that countries have begun to repatriate the gold and demand statements.

Venezuela and Germany are the two most high profile countries to have recently repatriated their gold. Both went to big efforts to publicise the existence of the gold as it was repatriated. Germany even published bar numbers.

 

Missing gold has the states in a state

The US has its own trust issues though when it comes to gold, thanks to the lack of checks in place. Two years ago the state of Texas were given the go ahead to build its own Bullion Depository, into which the state would repatriate over $1 billion worth of gold.

The move by Texas highlighted mistrust in the Federal Government’s ability to not only keep the physical gold but also to not confiscate it should the monetary system run into problems.

Gold going missing in the US is not a recent issue.

Back in the 1920s Herr Hjalmar Schacht, then head of the German Central Bank, went to New York to see Germany’s gold. Despite the importance of the visit, Fed officials could not find the palette of Germany’s gold bullion.

One would have thought this would have triggered an early start to the Second World War but instead Herr Schacht turned to the Federal Reserve Chairman, Benjamin Strong, and said ‘Never mind, I believe you when you when you say the gold is there. Even if it weren’t you are good for its replacement.’

All of this serves as a timely reminder that we should learn from the mistakes of governments and central banks. Rather than offer up a blind trust to counterparties storing gold we should ensure that we have as much control as possible over our gold bullion.

We believe that allocated and segregated gold bullion, stored in secure locations such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Zurich is the best way to store gold. When you do this with GoldCore you have control and a audit of your gold holdings so you know they are right where you want them, when you want them.

News and Commentary

Gold slips amid steady dollar; investors wary ahead of Jackson Hole meet (Reuters.com)

Metals shine as stocks struggle near 5-1/2-week low (Reuters.com)

A Cosmic Theory and 2-Inch Lump of Gold Drive Novo’s 500% Surge (Bloomberg.com)

UK Rightmove house prices down in August (Telegraph.co.uk)

Dalio Says the U.S. Is the Most Divided Since 1937 (Bloomberg.com)

Gold’s Rally Against Oil Is Just Beginning (Bloomberg.com)

Stars Are Aligning for Gold Bugs (WSJEmail.com)

US stocks may be more overvalued than they’ve ever been before (MoneyWeek.com)

UK’s biggest estate agent says Brexit negotiations are ‘biggest risk’ to housing market as growth slows (BusinessInsider.com)

Stunning Photos Capture the Solar Eclipse Across America (Smithsonian.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

22 Aug: USD 1,285.10, GBP 1,000.71 & EUR 1,091.95 per ounce
21 Aug: USD 1,287.60, GBP 999.82 & EUR 1,096.52 per ounce
18 Aug: USD 1,295.25, GBP 1,004.34 & EUR 1,102.65 per ounce
17 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 998.12 & EUR 1,096.74 per ounce
16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 & EUR 1,082.29 per ounce
15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce
14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

22 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.27 & EUR 14.48 per ounce
21 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.20 & EUR 14.48 per ounce
18 Aug: USD 17.15, GBP 13.30 & EUR 14.60 per ounce
17 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.23 & EUR 14.55 per ounce
16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.25 per ounce
15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Buffett Sees Market Crash Coming? His Cash Speaks Louder Than Words
– Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High
– Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since Nixon Ended Gold Standard
– World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2
– Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”
– Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer
– Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold
– Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers
– Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat
– Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners
– Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline
– Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017
– Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”

Important Guides

For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017:

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)

Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

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